因應時局：從投資轉向資產剝離 | Navigating the Shift: From Expansion to Strategic Divestment

近來雖然投資市場不佳，過去兩週的我卻反倒莫名忙碌。

忙碌的範疇，從之前的investment，變成了divestment。

由於交易沒有以前容易進行，公司的重心也從積極擴張轉為重新審視投資組合。對於表現不理想的物業，或大環境不明朗的國家，重新進行調整和出售。經歷了這樣的過程，也算是整個cycle都參與到了，獲得了一個蠻難得的經驗，在這裡也把這個過程記錄下來和大家分享。

Divestment過程

審視現有資產組合

Divestment的過程，從審視資產組合跟營運表現開始。

某些佔比過高的資產或國家，曝險過大，得不到投資人的青睞，影響到募資活動的進行，因此必須進行調整。
加上營運績效達不到當時與Lender談判的條件，可能會被迫面臨提前還款，或是必需進行一些必要的補救措施來滿足貸方的限制條款（Financial Covenant），使得公司必須重新審視持有資產的必要性，權衡是否應該持續支付貸款利息或罰金，換取未來可能的資產增值（Capital Gain），藉由調整負債比率（Debt-to-assets Ratio）來再次與貸方取得共識。

擬定可能的退場機制

針對物業個別條件及狀況，擬定可能的退場機制。是整體出售，還是部分出售，保留剩餘資產持續營運？或是透過售後回租（Sale and Leaseback）的方式，舒緩讓財務報表的壓力（Off-Balance Sheet）？經由與各個不同團隊，Operation Team、Finance Team、Treasury Team、Legal Team、各方stackholders的討論，集思廣益想出最佳的潛在解決方法。

建立財務模型

這部分就是跟我最有關係的部分。上述各種可能的出場策略，都要透過投資團隊將所有的input放進財務模型模擬，試算可能的情境與投資報酬率。由於有時程壓力，需在短時間統整各方的不同訊息，想辦法讓各種特殊的情境在model中呈現出來，還要應付時不時又突然冒出來新的模擬情境，在無數會議討論後，可能又要再次調整模型，讓過去兩週的我真的忙得不可開交，連吃飯都被壓縮到只有短短的時間，然後又要快速投入到工作。

什麼會是可能影響model的變因呢？

營運matrix：出租面積、出租率、租金增長率，未來營運狀況及市場預估
出售matrix：出售價格（cap rate或是找agent了解實際的出售價格）
Financing matrix：與Lender討論後的各種貸款付款期程與狀況，是否需要ICR cure等等的措施，是否可以refinance，refinance是透過境內或是境外，怎麼樣的貸款架構最為有利，市場利率未來走勢變化等等又是如何，怎麼樣會是對現有情境最好的抉擇。

確定Divestment決策及方向

有了投資團隊的模擬及數字作為支撐，現在整個工作團隊可以坐下來好好決定divestment的方向。最佳的投資報酬率，不見得會是最適合的決策方向，必須考量公司未來整體營運的計劃及目標，願意承擔的風險，現金流的狀況，整體從上到下做過透徹的考量，獲得一個從整體策略看來最「適合」的出場計畫。

Divestment執行

與各方stackholders、shareholders溝通協調得到最終的方向後，接下來就是交資產管理團隊去執行出售的計畫。投資團隊的角色在這個階段終於稍微可以喘口氣。

收穫與挑戰

最有挑戰的在於，在緊湊的節奏及時間壓力下，投資團隊需要保持腦袋清醒的推演各種財務模型，並針對來自各方奇奇怪怪，無法預期的問題進行邏輯性的回答。要是一個問題沒有回答好，可能就會被團隊質疑你的模型假設不夠嚴謹、數字運算可能不正確，或是你根本不知道自己在做什麼。透過這段時間密集且高強度的訓練，我覺得我的英文溝通能力、辯論能力（吵架能力）、Expectation Management能力、快速財務建模的能力、邏輯思辨能力、透過各種財務指標及策略考量後下判斷的能力都有顯著提升。

之前在JLL Capital Market時，也有divestment的經驗，但在JLL接觸到的階段，已經是該企業跑完上述所有流程，得到結論以後再委託JLL進行出售，所以JLL的角色可以說是在比較後端才加入整個商業環節。而在buy-side的話，好處是可以經歷到完整的流程，也可以學習公司高層是如何做出這個決策。這些策略性的判斷與思考，是讓我覺得很難能可貴的地方，也是我未來職涯發展過程中，希望培養的能力。

Although the investment market has been sluggish recently, things have oddly become quite hectic.

The focus of our work has shifted from investments to divestments.

Given the challenges in closing deals, the company has moved from aggressive expansion to a reassessment of its portfolio. Underperforming properties or investments in countries facing economic uncertainty are being reviewed and divested. This shift has allowed me to experience the full cycle of real estate investment, providing me with a rare and valuable opportunity. I wanted to document and share this process with you all.

The Divestment Process

Reviewing the Existing Portfolio

The divestment process begins by evaluating the performance of our assets.
Some assets or countries with disproportionately high exposure often fail to attract investors, hampering fundraising activities and necessitating adjustments. Additionally, if operational performance fails to meet the terms negotiated with the lender, the company may be forced to make early repayments or take necessary remedial actions to comply with financial covenants. As a result, the company must re-evaluate the necessity of holding certain assets, weighing whether it is worth continuing to pay loan interest or penalties in exchange for potential future capital gains. This involves adjusting the debt-to-assets ratio in order to reach a new consensus with the lender.

Developing Exit Strategies

For each property, a suitable exit strategy is formulated. Should we sell the asset outright, or should we retain a portion while continuing operations? Alternatively, a sale and leaseback structure could be used to alleviate financial pressure by moving debt off the balance sheet. This involves collaboration with various teams — operations, finance, treasury, legal, and other stakeholders — to brainstorm the most viable solutions.

Financial Modelling

This is the area that concerns me the most. The various possible exit strategies mentioned above must be simulated by the investment team, which incorporates all inputs into financial models to calculate potential scenarios and returns on investment. Given the time pressures, I am required to quickly consolidate different information from various parties, ensuring that unique situations are accurately reflected in the model. New scenarios often arise unexpectedly, and after numerous meetings and discussions, the model may need to be adjusted once again. The past two weeks have been especially hectic, leaving me with very little time for meals before I dive back into work.

What factors can affect the model?

Operational Metrics: leasing area, occupancy rates, rental growth, and future market forecasts
Sales Metrics: sale prices (determined through cap rates or consultations with agents)
Financing Metrics: loan repayment schedules, the need for measures like ICR cure, potential refinancing options, whether domestic or offshore, and the structure most favourable in light of future interest rate fluctuations

Determining Divestment Strategy and Direction

With the support of the investment team’s modelling and data, the broader team can now make an informed decision regarding the divestment direction. The highest return on investment may not always align with the most suitable decision, as we also need to consider the company’s long-term operational plans, risk tolerance, and cash flow. After thorough deliberation from top to bottom, a strategic exit plan is established.

Execution of Divestment

Once we have aligned on the final approach with all stakeholders and shareholders, the asset management team takes over to implement the sale. At this stage, the investment team finally has a moment to catch its breath.

Challenges and Takeaways

The biggest challenge has been maintaining clear-headed analysis under a tight schedule and immense time pressure. The investment team must logically address unpredictable and sometimes strange questions from various stakeholders. If a question is not adequately answered, the team’s trust in the assumptions of the model may falter. There could be doubts about the accuracy of the calculations or even whether I fully understand what I’m doing. Through this intense period of high-pressure training, I’ve seen significant improvements in my English communication skills, debate (and argumentation) skills, expectation management, quick financial modelling, logical reasoning, and the ability to make judgements based on a variety of financial indicators and strategic considerations.

During my time at JLL Capital Markets, I also gained experience with divestments. However, the cases I handled at JLL were at a more advanced stage, where the company had already gone through the processes described above and commissioned JLL to carry out the sale. This placed JLL in a more downstream role in the business cycle. On the buy-side, the advantage is that I can experience the entire process and learn how the company’s top executives arrive at these strategic decisions. These valuable experiences in strategic thinking and judgement are the skills I hope to cultivate as I continue to progress in my career.